瑞银-美股-零售行业-美国美妆零售：2019年Q4的现状如何-2020.3.10-62页

GlobalResearch10March2020U.S.BeautyRetailUBSEvidenceLabinside:What'sHappeninginBeautyRetail,4Q'19Whatishappeninginthepricingenvironment?Wereviewedpricesfor175ofULTA'stopproducts&otherretailers(asofJan22).OnexactSKUmatchesw/ULTA,Sephora'spriceswere-1.4%cheaper(+0.5%inOct),Macy's-1.3%cheaper(+0.2%inOct),&JWN's-0.5%cheaper(-0.7%inOct).AccordingtoUBSEvidenceLab,ULTALFLitempricesweredown-0.7%YoYforNov/Decperiodvs.-0.4%lastyear(&-0.4%avgforprior8Qs).Atthesametime,9%ofULTA'sonlineSKUswereonpromotioninNov/Dec,vs.7%lastyear.Thissuggeststhatwhilepromotionalactivityishigher,pricingbehaviorremainedrational.Sephoraannouncedthatitisopening100newstoresinNorthAmericain2020Inourmonitor,wefoundthatSephorahas~20%ofitsstorebaseintheNY&LAmetrosareas.ComparedtoULTA,wefindSephorastoresareindenser,higherincomeareas(within15minavg.drive,Sephorademographicsare$36kincomepercapita&357kpopulationvsULTAof$30kincomepercapita&220kpopulation).WefindULTAhasaSephorawithina15mindriveof44%ofitsstores.Separately,JCPreporteda-7%compin4Q'19(-4.7%ingo-forwardcategories).OftheJCPstoresw/aSephora,60%haveanUltawithina5mindrive&79%haveonewithin10minutes.Thebest-selling&newproductsatULTAaregenerallynotavailableelsewhereFor175top-sellingSKUsatULTA,40%wereavailableatSephora(39%inOctober),30%atM(45%inOctober)&25%atJWN(30%inOctober).Inmass,45%weresoldatAMZN1P(37%inOctober),21%atWMT1P(25%inOctober),&15%atTGT(13%inOctober).Thatsaid,Sephoracarried64%ofULTA'stop25best-sellingmakeupproductsinJanuary,downfrom72%inOctober(63%avgthelast11surveys).However,of100newproductsatULTA,Sephoracarriedonly5items,Macy's2,&Nordstromnone.WethinkthesefactorshelpinsulateULTAfromitscompetitors.ULTAhasbeenrecentlyaddingfewerproductstoitsonlinechannelOverthepast8months,61%-66%ofULTA'sonlineassortmentwasonitswebsiteintheyearagoperiod(vs.51-54%intheprior12months).Wethinkthatthislackofnewnesscontinuestoreflectarecenttrendinmakeup.Beautyretailershavementionedthattheindustryremainschallengedduetoanabsenceofinnovation&changingconsumerpreferences.Wethinkthistrendwilllikelycontinue,atleastinthenearterm.Figure1:ULTAtopproductsavailableatotherretailersFigure2:ULTApricesrelativetoothersonLFLitemsSource:UBSSource:UBS6%15%21%25%30%40%40%45%47%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%SBHTGTWMT1PJWNMSephoraAMZN3PAMZN1PWMT3PSephoraoffered39%ofULTA's175top-sellingproducts-1%-1%-1%11%-6%6%7%16%1%-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%SephoraMJWNSBHTGTAMZN1PAMZN3PWMT1PWMT3PInourmostrecentsurvey,Sephora,Macy's,andNordstromwereallpricedatsmalldiscounttoULTAWalmart1PandAmazon1PwerepricedatapremiumtoULTAonproductsthatoverlap,whileTargetwaspricedatdiscountEquitiesAmericasRetailers,BroadlineMichaelLasserAnalystmichael.lasser@ubs.com+1-212-7132440MichaelGoldsmithAnalystmichael.goldsmith@ubs.com+1-212-7132951JaySoleAnalystjay.sole@ubs.com+1-212-7133559StevenStryculaAnalyststeven.strycula@ubs.com+1-212-7131428ZuzannaPusz,CFAAnalystzuzanna.pusz@ubs.com+44-20-75671883GustavoPirasOliveira,CFAAnalystgustavo.oliveira@ubs.com+55-11-35136520MarkCardenAnalystmark.carden@ubs.com+1-212-7133218AtulMaheswari,CFAAssociateAnalystatul.maheswari@ubs.com+1-212-7134103U.S.BeautyRetail10March202022TableofContentsKeyTakeaways–Takeaway#1–Cosmeticsstoresalesdeceleratedin4Q'19–Takeaway#2–ProductoverlapwithULTAremainsstable–Takeaway#3–ULTAwasmorepromotionalin4Q'19thanlastyear–Takeaway#4–ULTA'slike-for-likeSKUpricingwaslowerthanlastyear–Takeaway#5–ULTA'spricedistributionhasbeensteadyoverthepastyear–Takeaway#6–ULTAhasbeenaddingfewernewproducts–Takeaway#7–ULTA'scannibalizationhasbeenstable–Takeaway#8–ULTA'soverlapwithSephorahasbeensteady–Takeaway#9–BeautysupplymaybevulnerabletoCovid-19MonitoringthePricingEnvironment–UBSEvidenceLabPricingIntelligenceMonitoringthePricingEnvironment–BeautyRetailPricing&AvailabilityMonitoringtheStoreLandscape–UBSEvidenceLabStoreOverlapMonitoringtheStoreLandscape–UBSEvidenceLabDemographicsMonitoringtheStoreLandscape–UBSEvidenceLabRegionalExposureAppendix1:MethodologyPage3Page4Page5Page6Page7Page8Page9Page10Page11Page12Page13Page15Page22Page36Page40Page51U.S.BeautyRetail10March20203KeyTakeawaysSection1U.S.BeautyRetail10March202044Takeaway#1–Cosmeticsstoresalesdeceleratedin4Q'19SpendTrenddollarvolumegrowthatcosmeticsstoresdecreased-0.6%year-over-yearduringULTA's4Q'19.Thisrepresentsaslowdownfromthe0.2%growthin3Q'19.ThedataindicatesthecategorycontractedinNovemberandDecember(-4.0%and-2.5%,respectively),butitturnedbackpositiveinJanuaryasitwasup4.7%.Further,thistrendcontinuedintothebeginningofFebruary(up2.8%).Throughoutthisreport,weexaminecompetitioninUSbeautyretailfromseveralanglestodeterminethesourcesofthispressureandhowcompetitionistrending.