77人民币升值对我国纺织品出口的影响

华中科技大学硕士学位论文人民币升值对我国纺织品出口的影响姓名：刘娟申请学位级别：硕士专业：国际贸易学指导教师：刘丽明20080527IGrangerIIRMBappreciationisahottopicwhichwaspaidmuchattentionbyinternationalcommunity.Atpresent,thereismuchstudyabouttheimpactofRMBappreciationontheeconomyofourcountry,suchastheimpactiontoourimportandexport,economicstructures,employmentlevel,andthewholeeconomy.ButrecordsabouttheimpactionoftheRMBappreciationtoaparticularindustryaredeficient.Chinaisabigtextilecountryonbothproducingandexport,theimportanceofthetextileexporttoourcountry’seconomyisapparent.However,thereisatrendthattheincreasingratespeedbecomesslowlywhiletheabsolutenumbersoftextileexportincreasing.Tothephenomenonabove,thisthesisisaimedatanalyzingtheRMBappreciationthattakeseffectontheincreasingspeedofourcountry’stextileexport,soastoprovidesomeusefulexplorationstothetextileexportdevelopmentofourcountry.WhydoestheRMBexchangerateappreciate?WhichfactorsdeterminethelevelofRMBexchangerate?ThisthesisfirstlyintroducesthetheoreticalbasisandrealisticbackgroundoftheRMBexchangerateappreciation,posesthattheabsolutetrendofRMBexchangerateappreciation.Andthen,thethesisintroducestheinternationalenvironmentofourcountry’stextileexport,Followed,linkingupwiththetextileexportcharacteristicsofourcountry,suchas,exportquality,exportstructure,andexportmanners.Basedonthetextileexportcharacteristicsofourcountry,makinguseofthetheoriesaboutexchangerateandinternationaltrade,thethesisstudieshowtheRMBappreciationaffectsonourcountry’stextileexport.TheconclusionisthattheRMBappreciationhasbadeffectonourcountry’stextileexport.Aftertheoreticalanalysis,thisthesisempiricallyanalyzestheimpactoftheRMBappreciationonourcountry’stextileexport.CointegrationTestandGrangerTestareusedtotesttherelationshipbetweenRMBappreciationandourcountry’stextileexport.TheIIIempiricalanalysisisconsistentwiththetheoreticalanalysis,thatis,RMBappreciationisthereasonwhyourcountry’stextileexportincreasingspeeddescends.Atlast,inconsiderationoftheimpactionoftheRMBappreciationonourcountry’stextileexport,thisthesisprovidessomesuggestions,wishingtoavoidtheadverseimpactoftheRMBappreciationtoourcountry’stextileexport,tousethischancetoadvancetheindustry’spromotion,andtoenhancetheinternationalcompetitivenessofourcountry’stextileexport.KeywordsRMBappreciationtextileproductsexport_____11.1200572118.118621.21.2.11Zhang200119521997CoudertandCouharde2005FEERBEERFunkeandRahn2005FEERPEERDunawayandLi20051ClarkMacDonald1998BEER200119992004200420052Edwards1989Elbadawi1994ERER20012003200220052002199050198019992001200220002FEERBEER3NATREXERER20072007200564.39%7.91/1.2.2MLJ1Clark1993DellasZiberfarb1993HooperKohlhagen1978Marquez19901973-1985-1.44-0.78BrahmasreneJiranyaku2002Singh20021960-1995Boyd200185ML4BaileyTrvlasUlan1986Gotur1985HooperKohlhagen1978RoseYellow19891960-1985G-7MLJChuaSharma1998MLWilson2001RahmanMustafa19961973-1992FrenkelWei199363198019851990198019851990219911970-19830.68710.0506120011985-199819861990120021978-20000.08920051998-200351992198019890.30070.72411.02481ML19971981199519851995OLS1.43311200519942003MLJ2005Johansen19942003FDI1.2.3200520062006Johansen61.31.3.11.3.2Granger1.3.371.3.42005720057200582.12.1.11141961G.L.Goschen21619141922Cassel93191923419441973—51973207010GARCHFEERBEERNATREXERER19972.1.21801200111200229.1180200243521031JGDP1%1%1210%31997152003103.5%5%4FEER200205818906285368501061020022131199453.920072622.019942007517.232%17.116%2.11994102.11994-2007()19941210.11156.253.9516.219951487.81320.8167.0736.019961510.51388.3122.21050.319971827.91423.7404.21398.919981837.11402.4434.71449.619991949.31657.0292.31546.820002492.02250.9241.11655.720012661.02435.5225.52121.620023255.72952.0303.72864.120034383.74128.4255.34032.520045933.65613.8319.86099.3220057620.06601.21018.98188.7220069690.87916.11774.710663.44200712180.29558.22622.015282.492143BRICS2.22.2.1200511WTOATCWTO15aES2ef0Q2Q1cED2ES1ED1bd163.13.1ES1ED1eQ10Q1aeES1Q2ES2edQ2ED1ED2fcfbd2.2.21WTO2001519200715663200320%2007112560.986815.0%063.72006112,487.970618.7%200563.1200620073.1()(%)1720062007135874921.840023911.61260139214.978234330.113101315520.511119129.714144486520.4159698910.515186025020.1206344710.916229653219.325218519.817270478518.7304347612.518316330818.8358636513.419359850418.2410890414.2110401438918.2459502814.5111443569918.2511518615.3112487970618.7560986815.023.22005200569%200772.1%27%22.6%183.22005-200731/370:20:103.2(%)1919809.936.516.137.5198512.636.811.938.719907.029.413.949.719955.217.87.269.820006.116.914.562.520045.417.212.664.845575%32/350%200758.6457.3925.7719.04%12.51%29.41%50.04%ATC203.13.1.1202040Robinson1937mexe11+mxhh20300))(()1()1(++-++++mmxxmxmxmxmxeeeeeehhhhhh213.1.21952IMF1123223.1.320701233.23.2.123,XdePP=dPXPedP100%124111232543.2.2200620062611121.1%11.7274.12005720071220057200572007121EX2ER3GDPGDPGDPGDPGDP4CPICPICPI:4.120057-200712,GDP,CPI(EX)28:GDP:EXGDPERCPIJul-05111.844572.108.2369101.8Aug-05117.944572.108.1019101.3Sep-05117.344572.108.0922100.9Oct-05101.1578838.0889101.2Nov-0597.4578838.0840101.3Dec-05102.3578838.0759101.6Jan-06101.9438518.0664101.9Feb-066